It’s not going to happen.
गर्जने बादल वर्षदैन!
For a month now, since the Terai Andolan decided to block petrol supplies to Kathmandu, I’ve been reading short news articles or tweets or FaceBook posts saying China had already lined up hundreds of gas bullets or petrol trucks, and they were waiting at the border. Or maybe that NOC was now going to negotiate with China. Or something like that.
Ummmm, no.
Talking about it does not mean that it is now happening. When an actual shipment arrives, there is no doubt in my mind that there will be live coverage on Kathmandu TV, politicians will be on hand, and puja will be offered.
Each of these newspaper reports is a fantasy, and each of these is suggested to a gullible journalist to give the illusion that the end of the petrol crisis is just around the corner. पहिले गरेर देखाउनु अनि भन्नु! China will rescue Nepal!
If you want to read another fiction, a more exciting one than that, click here for a review of my novel in Nepali Bhasa.
Caravans of magic yaks will travel over the pass, bringing LP gas cylinders.
Here is an English-language word you need to know:
“Logistics”
Logistics is the word for how to arrange the delivery of supplies to a distant location so they will get there in time.
The Oxford English Dictionary defines logistics as “the branch of military science relating to procuring, maintaining and transporting material, personnel and facilities.” However, the New Oxford American Dictionary defines logistics as “the detailed coordination of a complex operation involving many people, facilities, or supplies,” and the Oxford Dictionary on-line defines it as “the detailed organization and implementation of a complex operation.”[2] As such, logistics is commonly seen as a branch of engineering that creates “people systems” rather than “machine systems.”
According to the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (previously the Council of Logistics Management [3]) logistics is the process of planning, implementing and controlling procedures for the efficient and effective transportation and storage of goods including services and related information from the point of origin to the point of consumption for the purpose of conforming to customer requirements and includes inbound, outbound, internal and external movements.
Usually the people suggesting that China become the new supplier of petrol, have no idea that logistics exists, let alone how it applies.
Geography first
Start with a picture of the road between Kathmandu and Tibet at Kodari:
Taken about a month ago. Kodari, where the where was blocked by landslide since April 24th earthquake. As of last week, the road was reported to be one lane, not blacktopped, and not capable to handle heavy traffic probably for the next two years.
Next, a map of Tibet:
What is on the other side of the mountains? not much. It’s about a hundred miles to Lhasa, on the “Tibetan Plateau” and there are no trees, bushes, or towns. No facilities to get lunch or repair a broken truck.
Click here to see a video of the Tibet side. The map above does not tell the whole story, you need to know about the elevation. It’s steep!
This a very important graphic. The road between Lhasa and Nepal border goes over four mountain passes of 5,500 m each. Higher than Thorung-La pass. These need to be cleared of snow in winter. On the Nepal side, the road gains 4,000 m in elevation, much more than the road between Narayangadh and Kathmandu. (of course, trucks would ne empty going in that direction…)
Next, might as well show a map of “dry ports” – entryways to Nepal overland. Not one of the ports to China is open to cargo-carrying vehicles, since the earthquake.
None of the road ports to China are presently open. The one in Tatopani was heavily damaged and may not open for a year.
Here is a map showing the location of all blacktopped roads. To carry heavy cargo, the blacktop needs to be thick and strong. In the mountains it will create huge potholes if the ground freezes below the pavement.
blacktopped roads. There is not one blacktopped roads between Nepal and China.
a blacktop road through cold terrain needs a strong foundation, otherwise it will not last long when pounded by heavy cargo.
On a good day, prior to the Terai Andolan, the road from Terai to Kathmandu was prone to traffic jams.
What are the Chinese Newspapers saying?
Nepalese trade entrepreneurs have been placing high hopes from the resumption of this trading point to recover their business loss. However, it might take some more weeks for smooth operation of the port, Chinese officials said.
Cheng Ji, head of the Political and News section at the Chinese Embassy who attended the reopening ceremony, informed Xinhua from the spot “Today’s reopening is only the first step toward trade operation. Since the roads and infrastructures have been heavily damaged, it might take a long period of time for the smooth operation”.
The 14 km road section between the Chinese city Kerung and Nepali custom office is quite narrow and risky. The Chinese Armed Police Force has been working over night to clear and reconstruct the roads that has been severely damaged by the quake.
Cheng Ji said “The situation here is not so good since damage is severe. The Chinese side has difficulties such as lack of permanent structures including water and power supply.”
Since Tatopani, the largest trading point between China and Nepal, has remained closed due to the severe quake damage in Zangmu port and disruption in Araniko highway, traders have viewed Kerung as their second option.
Tsetan Gyalpo, a trader and hotel entrepreneur based in Syaphrubesi at bordering district Rasuwa told Xinhua “We wish to resume our daily life and regular business through border port soon. I am just waiting for the day to see loaded vehicles running on this road as before”.
However, the Chinese disaster prevention and mitigation experts said that the Kerung border port cannot be the alternative of Tatopani, at least for some years.
A visiting Chinese expert and professor from the Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment Chen Xiaoqing who leads an 8 member delegation to Nepal, told Xinhua “The road from Nepal’s bordering district Rasuwa to Kerung is quiet narrow and poor. It cannot resist the heavy loaded vehicles.”
The above does not seem optimistic. Also, I am told that the policy is, Chinese trucks do not enter Nepal and Nepali trucks do not enter China. Every cargo truck is unloaded at the border and re-loaded. In the case of petrol, you need a “tank farm” to accomplish this. They do not have a “tank farm,” and it would take a while to build.
“tank farm” – what they don’t have at the Nepal-China border. it is very difficult to move fuel without this kind of infrastructure.
What would the cost be? If there were two barrels and one cost twice as much as the other, which would you buy?
Then there is the cost. If Nepal gets their oil via China, that means all the oil to Terai will need to go down the hill from Kathmandu and into Terai. That will be expensive, more expensive than getting it only to Kathmandu. Oil from China will be more expensive than oil from India. What happens when the border to India re-opens? obviously, businesses in Terai will resume getting their oil from India because it will be cheaper. China will need to prevent Nepalis from buying the cheapest oil, in order to protect their investment.
On the map above, find the branch that loops down through Pakistan. That’s closer than building a new spur all the way through Tibet. The source of that map, Deep Resource, gives a fascinating description of the geopolitics of China’s oil, also explained quite well by a contributor in the comments below.
Why would China build all this just to supply Kathmandu?
What will China want from Nepal politically?
Republica published an analysis of this question Oct 22nd. As we all know, Boudha is a vibrant and important neighborhood of Kathmandu due to Tibetan expatriates living there. What if Boudha were to become a bargaining chip? We all know that the Tibetans living in Nepal “belong” here – but then again, do they? The Tibetans are not “Gorkhali” – why would we pre-suppose that the Nepal government would protect them any more than they protect other ethnic minorities such as the Madhesis?
Without a doubt, the first victims will be the Tibetans living in Nepal. It would not be surprising if for every 100 KL of oil we are asked to hand over a Tibetan living in Nepal, and for every 1000 KL, we are asked to shut down a monastery or have our monasteries turn into highly guarded prisons. We will be forced to go against the international conventions on refugees and human rights that we are signatory to. With international condemnation and probable isolation resulting from blatant violations of established global norms, we will be even more reliant on China and it will use the opportunity to change the name of Mount Everest/Sagarmatha to its Chinese name Qumolungma, an issue the Chinese have been raising on and off for many years.
In the medium and long-term, China with its highways and infrastructure development projects will project us as a likely front against India. Since such projects mean huge investment, logically, it will look for a regime that will secure its interests in Nepal. And it will instill and or support a regime favorable to its interests as it did in Myanmar until recently and which it continues to do in Zimbabwe. Our international isolation will be complete and we will become a pre-2012 Myanmar. – See more at:http://myrepublica.com/opinion/story/29948/the-bangla-solution.html#sthash.DM4qwb4s.dpuf
Where does China get it’s Oil?
Now, the logistical information above seems to clearly indicate that whatever happens, it won’t happen soon enough to warm houses in Kathmandu this winter. China will not be rescuing Nepal. Also, there is a cost to be weighed – does Nepal want to give up it’s sovereignty to China?
One interesting question remains – where does China get it’s oil? the answer is – from the Baku oilfields in Azerbaijan and in Tajikstan. There is a pipeline running from the west, to China, and it is already built. Below is an excerpt from a fascinating article about the international oil business, titled “Fury of the Audacious Dragon.”
The first part of the article is devoted to how the Chinese competed against the Americans to buy oil resources. Finally it gets to the part that applies to the “Oil Silk Road” –
Half a world away, China turned to its Western neighbors for oil and gas. In 2005, China’s CNPC bought Canadian-based Petrokazakhstan miles above market value beating Russia’s privately owned Lukoil, sending shock-waves to the Eastern part of the world. This time Lukoil never stood a chance. Russia’s influence on its Southern neighbors had waned.
In a region that was influenced by Russia for centuries, Central Asia was not exactly transportation friendly. All pipelines led to Russia, all roads led to Moscow. Realizing the infrastructure shortcoming, China wasted no time to build and finance a 3,000 km oil pipeline – the Kazakhstan China Pipeline (KCP). Operational in 2011, the pipeline joined China’s Xinjiang Province to the Caspian Sea, a new milestone, beating the clock when its competitors were at the gates.
Kazakhstan’s oil reserves of 30 billion m3 is by no means j.v. China’s KCP has become a direct competitor of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium CPC, owned by Gazprom, Chevron, ExxonMobil and Baku-Tbilisi- Ceyhan (BTC), and controlled by BP. The Western world was still oblivious to the presence of the Dragon. Further onslaught was on the cards.
Turkmenistan has natural gas reserves of 17.5 trillion m3, the 4th largest in the world. In Central Asia, the China Gas Pipeline started construction in 2008 with pipelines A an B. In 2011, a delivery capacity of 30 billion m3 was achieved. With the completion of Line C, the 1839 km – A, B and C – triple parallel Pipeline of 55 billion m3 started flowing on 31 May 2014
In 2013, US shale oil and natural gas production shot through the roof. As the end of Middle East oil dependency came naturally and automatically, US could afford to lift its foot off the pedal. Central Asia pipeline diplomacy was knocked off center stage and the much touted and delayed, Turkmenistan-Afganistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline became bogged down in a quagmire. With breakneck speed, China signed inter-Governmental agreements with Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan for the 4th gas line or D line, and by September 2014, a deal was in the bag to increase supply to China to 65 billion m3, representing 20% of Chinese 2014 requirements. At the same time, TAPI member States were still haggling over who should do what and when, plunging the whopping $10 billion Asian Development Bank project into further uncertainties.
When the plan to construct a pipeline from Kazahkstan and Turkmenistan to China was first announced at the beginning of the 21st century, it was dubbed the Energy Silk Road. It has since morphed into a giant network of oil and gas flowing all the way to South and East China.
read more at http://oilpro.com/post/12038/fury-audacious-dragon
The oil pipeline that runs through Tajikstan and XinChiang province has been named “The New Silk Road” after the route taken by Marco Polo. I runs far to the north of the Nepal border.Thismaps shows Marco Polo’s route, not the pipeline!
What you read in the papers
So, those announcements that somehow a magic alternative source of petrol or LP gas, are there to give you false hope, and to stall you into thinking that something amazing will happen, just around the corner. Only, this corner will never be turned.
काम साछे आफु लाई, खाना साछे अरुलाई! All the Nationalists who want to get LP gas from China, should go to the Himalaya, and
learn how to harness a yak caravanto bring it. After all, the bhote people aren’t “real Nepalis” – are they? can they be trusted to bring LP gas to Kathmandu?
